Soccer: Unto the Dogs

Toronto FC Preseason Stats (through 2/26)

2011-03-02T07:57:00.000-08:00

In the sheet below, "Starts" are actually halves started. This is meant to account for the early matches in which the squad was changed completely to start the second half.

Appearance Stats for Canadian Players

2011-02-19T05:42:00.000-08:00

I have collected and posted appearance stats for Canadian players during the 2010 calendar year. This means that for some players - those who play in summer leagues - the stats represent one season; and for others - those who play in winter leagues - they combine the second half of one season with the first half of the next. When I post an update at the end of June, this will reverse.

These stats are as complete and reliable as I could make them in many, many hours of work; and, have been corroborated with multiple sources whenever possible. Please feel free to suggest corrections or turn up stats on additional players.

Key

League: country of the league in which players club(s) was based

D: division of the league pyramid in which players club(s) was based

GS: games started

SA: substitute appearances

Note 1: if a players League or division is listed as various or v, it means the player appeared in more than one league or division during the 2010 calendar year.

Note 2: you may need to widen your browser window to display the sheet properly.

Say Hello, Waived Goodbye

2010-03-25T09:39:00.000-07:00

The new MLS CBA has had a significant affect on the annual fun that is Roster Compliance Deadline day. In addition to the usual collection of bodies cut to trim roster numbers to 24, a few notable high-salaried players have also fallen under the axe. The new salary cap level could not accommodate veteran goalkeeper Jon Busch in Chicago, or Pat Noonan in Colorado.

Does the raft of waived players contain anyone Toronto FC might pull aboard their own listing ship?

Players Waived (since 3/19/10)

......Name......Po...Club......Na.....DOB....GP..MP

Alex Grendi MF Columbus US 28-Jul-87 3 127

Antonio Ribeiro MF San Jose Can 08-Oct-80 7 509

Carey Talley DM Chivas US 26-Aug-76 27 2401

Cory Elenio MF Columbus US 14-Aug-86 1 17

Danny Szetela MF DC US 17-Jun-87 4 97

Erik Ustruck MD Houston US 04-Jan-85 2 40

Gabriel Badilla DF New England CR 30-Jun-84 0 0

Greg Dalby MF Colorado US 03-Nov-85 11 242

John DiRaimondo MF DC US 23-Apr-86 1 45

Michael Kraus FW Kansas City US 10-Sep-84 11 147

Pat Noonan FM Colorado US 02-Aug-80 22 1049

Raphael Cox DM Salt Lake US 07-Jul-86 6 208

Simon Elliott MF San Jose NZ 10-Jun-74 15 1234

Wade Barrett DF Houston Retired

Jon Busch GK Chicago US 18-Aug-76 30 2700

Mike Graczyk GK San Jose US 26-Jul-85 0 0

Chris Eylander GK Seattle US 14-Mar-84 1 90

TFC should (read: SHOULD) have little interest in these keepers, since an American backup keeper is (and has been) a poor use of an International spot on the roster.

Several of the outfield players are inexperienced, and could not be considered beyond the end of the bench (another bad use of an international spot). Elliott and Talley are better candidates for retirement than for the field or subs bench, especially since TFC already features the cryogenic Nick Garcia. Talley might well be preferable to Garcia, but having both would surely be worse than having either. Barrett has already retired. All that said, there are still a few players on the above list who could be of interest to TFC.

Raphael Cox

By no means a candidate to start, Cox is nevertheless a potentially interesting depth player. He is a left-footed and has decent pace. He played on the wing last year – though he could be pressed into service as at left-back. He was on a developmental salary last season, so he would likely be quite happy with a league minimum salary this year.

Danny Szetela

Szetela has been a terrible disappointment to this point in his career. Still, it is difficult to forget the tremendous promise he showed when he last played in Canada, at the 2007 U-20 World Cup, when his play won him a move to Le Liga. TFC does need a decent depth player for the centre of midfield, but if they prefer trainee Martin Saric in that role there would be no fit for Szetela.

Antonio Ribeiro

Not a player to get excited over, but TFC could do worse for an eighteenth man on a near minimum salary, especially as he would not use an international spot. Ribeiro would be a trustworthy deep-depth player in central midfield, and an emergency fill in on either wing.

Gabriel Badilla

Another disappointing player with a decent pedigree. In the fall of 2008, he briefly looked like he might ably replace the soon-to-depart Michael Parkhurst. Last season was a lost one for him, largely due to injury. Again, if TFC already has a trainee it prefers, in Adrian Cann, there is no match here, especially since Badilla is on a large contract.

Pat Noonan

A player with an outsized reputation, given his recent performance. As much as TFC does need a forward or two, they need a withdrawn striker, like Noonan, less than they need a true goal scorer.

Steve Purdy

Purdy was not actually waived, since he was not under contract to FC Dallas, so he does not appear on the above list. While Purdy is not a well known player, Dallas blogger extraordinaire Buzz Carrick has argued for the last month against his dismissal. At six-foot-four, Purdy could bring a new element to the TFC backline, strength in the air.

Bright Dike

Dike was a head-scratching first round pick by Columbus at the 2010 MLS Super Draft. He showed up in poor shape and lost out to two fourth round picks when the Crew roster was set. A poor man’s Ali Gerba. TFC must add him for his comedic name potential.

Argos to BMO Field: Editorial Response

2009-11-29T11:40:00.000-08:00

Reports of the renewed interest of the Toronto Argonauts in a move to BMO Field have been met with near universal distain within the Toronto soccer community.

Personally, I do not suffer the reflexive apoplexy that most Toronto soccer fans do at the mere mention of the concept. BMO Field is owned by the City of Toronto. As a resident of that city, I would, theoretically, find it hard to object to another team contributing to the already impressive income generated by the facility.

CFL teams often make decent, rent-paying tenants. Several have also recently answered the call to make a significant capital investment in their home stadiums. Most notably, the fan-owned Winnipeg Blue Bombers recruited new, private ownership willing to pony up 100 million dollars towards a new stadium. Seeing as BMO Field could still benefit from significant capital investment – to improve concessions and washroom facilities; perhaps expand seating capacity; or (pipe dream) to cover stands with roofing – it might actually be nice to have such a tenant-partner.

And there is the rub. Toronto FC would not be ground sharing with the Blue Bombers; they would be making way for the worst run franchise in the CFL, the Argonauts. In my opinion, the scariest prospect is not that the Argos want to bring their pointy balls, fat guys and gridiron lines to mar the newly laid grass at BMO. The scariest prospect is that this ineffectual franchise clearly wants to do so on the cheap.

The Argos are apparently willing to make a mockery of the rules of Canadian football – which were first codified just one year after those of association football, or soccer – by cramming the team into a stadium fully 20 yards too short for the field of play. In its current configuration, the stadium could only accommodate a proper 110-yard CFL field with half-sized, American-style end zones. And yet, all of the news reports seem to suggest that this would be the plan for the Argos. This is the real grim indicator for those who feel invested in the future of TFC, the Canadian national teams, and BMO Field – the Argos are a terrible franchise, with little-to-no respect for their own game.

If the Argos were even willing to make a small contribution to altering stadium, the CFL-sized field could be accommodated for Argos games with no great affect on TFC fans. The south stand could be altered to include 12 to 15 rows of roll-away or fold-away seating (virtually every multi-purpose stadium in North America has movable seating, including Rogers Centre, BC Place, Olympic Stadium and Canad Inns Stadium), and the small north end could be removed – to be replaced by temporary seating for TFC match days. TFC seating capacity, and positioning, could be left unaltered, though capacity for Argos games would be reduced to 18 or 19 thousand.

The unwillingness of the Argos to make these small alterations suggests that their revenues are so poor that they could not withstand the loss of these seats – the 1 to 2 thousand lowest priced seats in the stadium. They are in such dire straits that they value cheap seating over the integrity of their own game. And yet, this is the organization Toronto FC would have to trust to repair the field after every CFL game – I picture a couple of minimum-waged teenagers lazily replacing divots for twenty minutes after each game.

Sharing a stadium with a CFL team need not be such a scary proposition for a soccer club – lord knows CFL teams have a strong track record of making it rain sweet-sweet taxpayer dollars for stadiums. The Vancouver Whitecaps will be the first to benefit from the overflow of this largesse/boondoggle. An Ottawa club may be the next. Partnership with a properly run CFL team could likewise bring good things to BMO Field, and its current tenants. However, the Argos, by all appearances, are not a properly run CFL franchise.

Alternate Theory: The Argos are secretly brilliant

As presented, the concept of the Argos moving to BMO Field is so ugly and incongruous that it makes me wonder if this is just phase one of an Argos-led government boondoggle. As it stands now, as the rent-free tenants of Rogers Centre, the Argos are in no position to wriggle themselves onto the teat of Mother Government, to fatten at taxpayers expense. Yet, if they were to move to a city owned stadium – one that is clearly too small, both for the game and for profitability –they would soon be in position to cry out for government largesse.

From the Argos perspective, the expansion of Molson Stadium is a perfect model for a government payout. The Alouettes had a 20,000-seat stadium, needed 25,000 seats to be profitable, and got 80% of the near 30 million dollars required for this upgrade from the city and the provincial government. The Argos might well need more than this amount to alter BMO Field, since they would first need to make a Canadian football field fit – which would lower its CFL capacity – meaning the additional seating required would be closer to 7,000.

Of course, this scenario depends on the Argos ownership being competent, which every shred of evidence would seem to refute.

Ultimately, even if the long-term goals of the Argos did eventually mean largely likable upgrades to BMO Field – hardly a foregone conclusion – for TFC, it might well mean a few years of painful ground sharing with an Argos team actively trying to demonstrate a need for Government support.

Given the givens – that the city will welcome the Argos to BMO, and that neither TFC nor the CSA could stop them – those who would oppose the move, as currently presented, will have to hold out hope that the Argos see BMO Field as a bargaining chip with their current landlords.

If the move does happen, my hope would be that the Argos would be respectful enough to not drag themselves, their league, their game and their co-tenants through the mire of a protracted demonstration of their need for taxpayer money (to achieve the renovations to the stadium that they should have bought into years ago).

Argos, if you now see your future at BMO Field, put your cards on the table, put your hand out, ask for the money you clearly would need to make this plan work. Save us – those invested financially and emotionally in the first great stadium at Exhibition Place – the pain of your scheming and manoeuvring.

MLS Expansion: Mock Draft

2009-11-24T12:23:00.000-08:00

The following mock draft is based solely on what I would do were I making the choices, and has nothing whatsoever to do with what Philadelphia Union boss Peter Nowak will do tomorrow afternoon when the team selects its first ten players (unless, of course, he happens to read this blog, and has a keen eye for a true work of genius). Another mock draft has taken trivial matters like plausibility into account, here.

My rules:
· draft 10 players who have proven enough to be counted in a best 18, though not necessarily a best 11
· draft no one on the wrong side of their prime (no one over 27 years old)
· draft only domestic players
· draft as cheaply as possible

Picks (ages are as of the start of the 2010 season)

Michael Banner, 25, defender/midfielder, 34k, Chicago
· a Jack-Of-All-Trades type, played in 22 league matches; appearing on both sides, in midfield and defence

Matthew Besler, 23, defender (central/left), 47k, Kansas City
· a bizarre move by KC, leaving Besler unprotected, he played in all but two games, starting as a left-back and a centre-back

Pablo Campos, 26, centre forward, 70k, Salt Lake
· a giant with half decent ball skills, a first-year expansion team will always need a target man

Bobby Convey, 26, left winger, 245k, San Jose
· he was brutal for two-thirds of the season, and then had several decent matches towards the end of the season. The fix is in on this one: he is going to Philadelphia, so, I have included him, despite the fact that I would rather have Shea Salinas and a couple of hundred thousand dollars.

Brian Edwards, 25, goal-keeper, 48k, Toronto
· a starting quality keeper, Mo Johnston must think he knows something about Philadelphia’s keeper preferences; or, perhaps Mo hopes they just look at Edwards’ goals-against-average, which took a huge hike when his defence quit on him against New York.

Jordan Harvey, 26, left-back, 51k, Colorado
· a starting left-back who is 25 and makes fifty-thousand dollars, should be a no brainer.

Andrew Jacobson, 24, central midfielder, 34k, D.C
· another American player who hurt his draft stock by flirting with European football, he was decent in his return to North America, has some upside and nice size for a central midfielder.

James Riley, 27, right-back, 73k, Seattle
· a solid MLS right-back, he also has experience as part of a first-year expansion back-line, that couldn’t hurt.

Wells Thompson, 26, midfielder, 35k, New England
· I am actually not a great fan of Thompson, but, with his salary and ability to play on either wing, he is hard to pass up. Given a choice between him and team-mate Pat Phelan, I would choose him as the player with more offensive spark.

Nick Zimmerman, 22, midfielder, 20k, New York
· I have only seen him a couple of times, but the Red Bulls board on Big Soccer has lit-up (to the extent that it can) with protest about his exposure in the draft, and did I mention the twenty thousand dollar salary?

Admittedly, this team is not going to impress anyone on paper, but, all of these players would likely still be around in three years – leaving the time, money and international slots to fill out the roster. By building a roster of young, cheap, domestic players, the Union would have close to 2 million dollars (notwithstanding signing a DP) left to spend.

These 10 players would also cover most of the field – including the hard-to-staff left side – so that picks in the upcoming MLS SuperDraft, and free agent signings could be made based on talent, rather than need.

The bottom line is that this draft is the best way to find cost-controlled US talent, so why not use it to do so. International talent can be found elsewhere, and, with these draft picks made, the money would be there to do so.

The five teams which would escape without having a player selected (Chivas USA; FC Dallas; LA Galaxy; Houston Dynamo; Columbus Crew), do so by offering largely older, pricier, international players. Jason Garey, Michael Chabala and Alan Gordon are the players closest to the mark.

2014 World Cup Cycle Player Pool – November 2009 edition

2009-11-22T14:07:00.000-08:00

The notion that there is a peak age for player performance in soccer, or any sport, is not a neat and tidy one. Whatever peak age is suggested – most often in the range of 27 or 28 – there are many exceptions. And yet, support for the notion of a peak age is not difficult to find. World Cup winning sides almost invariably have a disproportionate cluster of peak or near-peak players. The 2006 cup winners, Italy, fielded twelve players who were within two years of their 28th birthday.

At present, Canadian soccer does not produce enough quality players for one such age cohort to offer a large number of capable players. Instead, the Canadian player pool will be made up of players from the peak cohort (or prime), and a large number of younger (pre-prime) and older (post-prime) players. Nevertheless, in projecting the Canadian player pool for the 2014 World Cup cycle, it is worthwhile paying special attention to players who will be at or near their nominal peak.

· Recent history suggests that the player pool for qualifying will include around 25 outfield players.

Pre-Prime Players

The role played by young, pre-prime players has varied pretty widely in recent campaigns. Under Holger Osieck, young players (those who were 25 or under by 2002 World Cup time) played a huge role, playing 37% of minutes in qualifying. By contrast, under Dale Mitchell, young players rarely saw the field, playing only 10% of available minutes. On average, in the last three cycles, young players have accounted for about a quarter of minutes played. While there are a wide range of possibilities in the next cycle, history points to at least two and no more than nine young players being involved; an average level of involvement would mean around six.

Prime Players

The pre-prime players of 2010 will become the prime players of 2014. An unfortunate legacy of the Dale Mitchell era is that these players barely saw the field in the past cycle. The young veterans of the last two cycles had at least triple the qualifying experience that this cohort will have. That notwithstanding, history points to a minimum of seven and no more than eleven prime players being involved; an average level of involvement would mean around nine players.

Post-Prime Players

In World Cup terms, the prime has passed for the would-be golden generation of Canadian players, including the leaders of the 2003 youth team that pushed Spain into extra-time in quarter finals of the world youth championship. Thankfully, in the past, post-prime players have maintained a central role in the Canadian side. On average, close to forty percent of out-field minutes are played by these older players. History points to a minimum of nine and no more than eleven older players being involved; an average level of involvement would mean around ten players.
.
Post-Post Prime Players

Historically, a portion of the playing time goes to players two cycles beyond their prime. Most recently, Tomasz Radzinski played in the 2010 cycle, having spent his prime (circa 2002) out of the national set-up. Paul Peschisolido and Mark Watson (both 2002) are other recent examples.
.
.
Prospective Players (rankings as of 11/22/09)
.
Pre-Prime Players
.
Minimum Involvement (2 Players)
1. Nana Attakora
2. David Hoilett
Average Involvement (6 Players)
3. Marcus Haber
4. Ethan Gage
5. Adam Straith
6. Teal Bunbury
Maximum Involvement (9Players)
7. Randy Edwini-Bonsu
8. Philippe Davies
9. Paris Nakajima-Farran
.
Prime Players
.
Minimum (7)
1. Marcel de Jong
2. Will Johnson
3. Simeon Jackson
4. Dejan Jakovic
5. Jaime Peters
6. Nik Ledgerwood
7. David Edgar
Average (9)
8. Andrew Hainault
9. Andrew Ornoch
Maximum (11)
10. Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault
11. Tyler Hemming
.
Post-Prime Players
.
Minimum (6)
1. Mike Klukowski
2. Atiba Hutchinson
3. Julian de Guzman
4. Josh Simpson
5. Iain Hume
6. Issey Nakajima-Farran
Average (8)
7. Rob Friend
8. Ali Gerba
Maximum (10)
9. Kevin Harmse
10. Chris Pozniak
.
Post-Post Prime Players
.
Minimum (1)
1. Dwayne De Rosario
Average (2)
2. Kevin McKenna
Maximum (3)
3. Patrice Bernier
.
Top Additional Candidates
.
Pre-Prime: Shaun Saiko; Gabe Gala; Alex Surprenant
Prime: Toisant Ricketts; O’Brian White
Post-Prime: none
Post-Post Prime: Adrian Serioux
.
Notes On The Rankings
.
· Hoilett is included despite his clear lack of commitment to Canada. If he were to choose another nation – despite being a born and bred Canadian – that would move Edwini-Bonsu into a more likely position. This may be cold comfort, but at the same time, there is a limit on how many tiny attacking players Canada can feasibly put on the field. Hume, Jackson, Peters, and one of Hoilett and Edwini-Bonsu would surely be pushing that limit.
· Bunbury is not currently on the radar, but he is almost certain to get a shot in MLS before Edwini-Bonsu, and offers a height-speed combination no current Canadian attacker can match.
.
.
25-Man Pool
.
Locks (16)
Nana Attakora
Julian de Guzman
Marcel de Jong
Dwayne De Rosario
David Edgar
David Hoilett
Iain Hume
Atiba Hutchinson
Mike Klukowski
Simeon Jackson
Dejan Jakovic
Will Johnson
Nik Ledgerwood
Issey Nakajima-Farran
Jaime Peters
Josh Simpson
Second Tier (7)
Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault
Rob Friend
Ethan Gage
Marcus Haber
Andrew Ornoch
Andrew Hainault
Adam Straith
Wild Cards (2)
Teal Bunbury
Tyler Hemming
.
Notes On The 25-man Pool
.
· The established locks lack height upfront and along the back-line. Head Coach Stephen Hart will likely make some attempt to play with two small strikers, but the smart money is on Canada requiring a steady supply of tall centre-forwards. This makes Friend, Haber and Ornoch likely candidates.
· Hainault is a virtual lock for inclusion. As it stands today, he would clearly been chosen ahead of Edgar. Straith is beginning to establish himself as a strong candidate for the fifth center-back, just as Kevin McKenna looks to be on his way out for club and country.
· Beaulieu-Bourgault and Gage could provide depth in central-midfield and end the national team run of the underwhelming Patrice Bernier.
· Given his age, body type and seemingly poor work ethic, Ali Gerba is unlikely to carry on into the next cycle.

Canada 0 - 1 Poland: Game Notes

2009-11-18T11:23:00.001-08:00

Given what came before, it is hard to not be happy with Canada’s effort against Poland. This match was a largely evenly played until the final twenty minutes, when Canada slumped noticeably – understandable for a side with so many players either out of season or struggling to find first team football with their clubs. Ultimately, the two teams were separated by the one moment of brilliance on offer, a perfectly worked 19th minute goal by Poland’s Maciej Rybus.

Notes

- The goal really was a thing of beauty: a nice ball in to create separation; a fine header down to Rybus; and a great touch and turn by Rybus. That said, watching the replay it became clear that Kevin McKenna had failed to make any challenge on the ball played in, neither attempting to win the ball nor confront the attacker. Caught ball-watching.

- Lars Hirschfeld was beyond rusty. It was as bad a goal-keeping performance as I have even seen go unpunished by a weak goal. At one point I honestly wondered if he was troubled by the stadium lights – I usually assume that excuse is poor at best. The instinctual part of Lars game – the actual shot stopping – seemed largely intact, but the finer points of punching, handling and distribution were comically bad.

- Early in the match, Canada wasted corners from the left side of the pitch, the first two or three failed even to reach the near post. This is the precise kind of problem that comes to the fore when a team skips five consecutive match dates.

- Its been over five plus years since his senior debut and Jaime Peters is exactly the same player he was at seventeen – a lightning fast winger with iffy ball control and passing skills.

- In the first half, Atiba Hutchinson was more aggressive in attack than I am used to seeing for Canada. He seemed to have a largely free role at times, with Julian de Guzman playing the deeper-lying role. The result was one especially nice ball put through to Tomasz Radzinski.

- Poland was surprisingly capable in the dark arts, in particular demonstration. One minor (though effective) shirt tug by Dejan Jakovic apparently resulted in the near death of one Pole. Another responded to an admittedly strong tackle by Josh Simpson with a flying pratfall worthy of Buster Keaton.

Growing (Old) Pains

2009-11-14T07:53:00.000-08:00

As a reasonable, rational person I should not be writing about this match, since it would generous to say that I even “saw it”. Apparently, a Macedonian internet stream can simply not support the massive worldwide interest in Canadian soccer. But, what I did see of the match, did underscore some things that I already had been thinking about posting, so here we are.

The careers of Canadian national team players have rarely ended gloriously – few, if any, have received a send off befitting their service to the team. It appears that Stephen Hart wants to change that: he wants to give Paul Stalteri the chance to retire as the all-time caps leader, and he wants the curtain to come down for Tomasz Radzinski in the country of his birth. This is laudable stuff, and very unlike the national team program of the past.

The match against Macedonia, however, showed the downside of using international matches as testimonials – and, was the worst match put in by the team since the debacle in Durban two years ago. Stalteri and Richard Hastings – another veteran who will have aged out of the squad before 2014 qualifying begins – were part of a hapless defence that made every set-piece an adventure and could start nothing going forward.

It would be nice to see the name of Paul Stalteri – a vital player for the 2000 Gold Cup winners, and veteran of three World Cup qualifying campaigns – alongside Randy Samuel at the top of Canada’s cap list, but he has been a terrible defensive liability at right-back for the last two years. Against Macedonia, Stalteri and Hastings were shown-up badly and repeatedly – though Hastings owed his position in the starting line-up to the (hopefully brief) absence of Dejan Jakovic.

Stalteri is virtually assured of at least one more start at right-back, since the squad that will face Poland on Wednesday offers only young debutant Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault as an alternative. But, if Stalteri is to achieve the handful of additional caps he needs to match Samuel it should be as a late game substitution or in a more forgiving position – perhaps in a deep-lying midfield role.

Personal Notes

- As bad as the back-line was, no one on the field for Canada was much stronger. The game had a mailed-in quality all around.

- This match really underscored why even friendly matches against European competition are so tough. Macedonia or Estonia may not overwhelm with the quality of their players, but they have been through the fires of qualifiers against the Netherlands in Amsterdam, or Scotland in Glasgow. Relatively speaking, Canada must look like an easy mark (and often is).

- It is beyond offensive that a mailed-in friendly played in front of a few thousand yawning Macedonians in 2009 could end up really hurting Canada in World Cup qualifying for 2014. But, since FIFA monthly rankings are so important in the current system, and since CONCACAF Dictator Jack Warner can choose to use whatever month most flatters Trinidad and Tobago, Canada can never afford to let its ranking slip.

- I’m starting to worry about Julian de Guzman, he looks totally disengaged after just a couple of months of playing at a lower level of competition. If Toronto FC continue their ineptitude he may never recover.

- As I was making notes during the match, I was going to make a big deal about the decision to let Iain Hume take the penalty kick over Simeon Jackson – and then came the second PK chance.

- Canada still needs Dwayne De Rosario. He is the only Canadian player who can change a match going forward, and create goals even when – as today – Canada isn’t stringing together passes. If Radzinski had an important role in 2010 qualifying, De Rosario could just as well have one in 2014.

TFC’s Playoff Hopes (If Any)

2009-09-01T09:11:00.000-07:00

Over the past month, the playoff hopes of Toronto FC have quietly faded. The results have not been terrible – in August, the team was level on goals in league play. Nevertheless, on the first of September, the club sits outside of the playoffs and looks likely to stay that way.

Projecting from the current standings – if teams hold the home and away form established so far this season – the final table would look like this (current point total, as of September 9th is in brackets):

.1. Columbus.......52 (39)
.2. Houston........49 (40)
.3. Chicago........48 (38)
.4. Los Angeles....47 (38)
.5. Chivas USA.....47 (33)
.6. New England....47 (33)
.7. D.C. United....44 (32)
.8. Colorado.......44 (33)
.9. Seattle........42 (34)
10. Real Salt Lake.41 (33)
11. Toronto FC.....40 (31)
12. FC Dallas......31 (23)
13. Kansas City....30 (21)
14. San Jose.......26 (20)
15. New York.......20 (16)

The top four are pretty much home and cooled, having opened up a four-point gap on the field. Additionally, Chivas has five home matches remaining, and has great home form – they project to take 11 points from those matches alone; D.C. United also has five home matches left, and, based on form, should take 10 points from those; and, New England has two or three games in hand on the rest of the field, making them a good bet for the playoffs. That makes seven teams with a decent leg-up on eight playoff spots.

As it stands now, Colorado projects to slip into the eighth spot, owing largely to having a game or two in hand on the others. Seattle and Real Salt Lake will likely not take as many points from their remaining fixtures, but they could hold off TFC with the small lead they now have.

Obviously, there is a good deal of flux possible in all of this, but, what is fairly clear is that 42 points – Chris Cummins stated goal – is likely to not be enough to secure a playoff spot; it is likely to take 44 or 45.

This is an unfortunate turn of events for TFC, since for the last three seasons 40 points was enough to secure a playoff spot. It comes down to the unusually large number of points surrendered by the clubs at the bottom of the table, which has raised the point totals of most of the clubs above them.

Toronto 3 – 1 San Jose

2009-07-12T07:20:00.000-07:00

I wasn’t planning to blog about last night’s Toronto FC match – there are several hundred bloggers who provide match reports for every TFC match and I’m not in a great rush to be the several hundred and first – then Toronto scored its third goal, and the match rose to a level of comedy/ineptitude that I felt needed to be commented on.

That was the worst soccer match I have seen this year, at any level – and I watch a lot of bad soccer, including many USL and CSL matches. It was sloppy, scrambling, disorganized and the overall skill level on display was poor. Rather than offering an archive of this match online, all existing copies should be deleted or burned – comparisons of the level of play in MLS to the English Championship would be mooted by viewing of this match alone.

Unlike much of the other terrible soccer being played in MLS these days, this match can’t be blamed on international absences – the two teams combined were short one player. Instead this one can be written off as another case of TFC playing down to their opponent, although the final score line suggests they didn’t play all the way down to San Jose’s level.

That said Chris Cummins did manage to make the absence of Sam Cronin into a much bigger deal than it needed to be. Instead of simply sliding Adrian Serioux forward into Cronin’s slot, Cummins chose to move pretty much every one – Amado Guevara moved back into the empty spot; Pablo Vitti slid back into midfield; Dwayne De Rosario swapped sides to cover Vitti; Jim Brennan came forward into midfield; and, Serioux played in Brennan’s usual left back spot. Aside from De Rosario, all of these moves were awkward. The lesson going forward – less is more.

Random Thoughts

- It was already the worst match I’ve seen this year, and then Marco Velez came on. How on earth is he still on this team or in this league? He is easily and obviously the worst regular participant in TFC history.
- I never get over how great Buck Shaw Stadium looks for soccer, the fans are right on top of the field and each stand is properly aligned, amazing place considering.

2009 Gold Cup Group Stage – Canada 1 - 0 Jamaica: Game Notes

2009-07-03T19:56:00.000-07:00

- It was frustrating to see so many holdover players. In some far off – almost beyond the realm of the imagination – world, come Brazil 2014, is Paul Stalteri going to be the 36-year-old right back of the Canadian World Cup team? Is Patrice Bernier (a marginal player in his prime) going to start in midfield at 34? Will we see 37-year-old Richard Hastings warming on the sidelines? It’s time for the gold watch treatment for these, and other, noble servants. Without seeing a signed and notarised letter of refusal from David Edgar, Nik Ledgerwood, Andrew Ornoch, Nana Attakora and David Hoilett, I’m going to have to label the holdovers terrible selections.

- At the same time, it was equally painful to see hints of how different a Stephen Hart lineup might have been last year. Absent from the field was any permutation of the disastrous Hastings-Serioux-Hainault central defence that plagued the qualifying campaign. Into the lineup went Will Johnson, who was so ruinously missing from the first Honduras match. Neither he nor Dejan Jakovic or Kevin McKenna – the new central defence pairing – has come out of the woodwork since last fall; any of them would have worthwhile upgrades then as they are now.

- In the first half, it seemed as though Marcel De Jong was the only midfielder with a fixed role. Julian De Guzman, Patrice Bernier, Atiba Hutchinson and Will Johnson all traded off making runs forward and defending deep.

- In the second half (up until Johnson was subbed off) they played in much more defined roles – and I was reminded of how wasteful it can seem to have De Guzman play so deep. After Simeon Jackson came on, De Guzman went forward into the attacking midfield role and all seemed right with the world.

- De Jong does not look up to it as an attacking player. To be fair, I haven’t seen much of him, and I understand that he has played in midfield for his club – but, he has not shown anything on the wing for Canada.

- Josh Simpson showed flashes, as he has in the past, but, going forward, I hope whoever is in charge of the CMNT will be willing to go without a true left-footed attacker if no one proves up to the task. Better they should have a free player cover the left than wedge a subpar winger into the lineup.

- Ali Gerba scores goals. That is the only definitive statement I can make about him. I can’t point to any specific skill he uses to do this; I can’t vouch for his work rate; and, I know for a fact that he doesn’t look pretty doing it – but the point cannot be argued; he is a natural goal scorer.

- Can someone please explain to me what it is that Greg Sutton lacks that has kept him from becoming a top keeper? I have never been able to put my finger on it...and yet, he clearly lacks something.

- At the final whistle, I couldn’t help but think, what if this had been the final score line in Toronto last year – how different things might have been.

The MLS Schedule and FIFA Match Dates

2009-04-23T17:07:00.001-07:00

No single element of the MLS world is as widely derided as the schedule – not the Beckham affair; not the consistently poor performance of MLS clubs in continental competition; not the absurd salary structure. The refrain – heard on many a podcast, read on countless blogs – goes like this, no serious league, anywhere on earth, schedules league matches on FIFA match dates: MLS is bush league.

This season, despite wide criticism and pressure from FIFA, MLS clubs will play (have already played) matches on FIFA dates. Unfortunately, with an odd number of clubs taking part in the 2009 season – greatly complicating scheduling – this could not be avoided. Could MLS right this wrong in 2010? The short answer is yes, but it wouldn’t be pretty.

Of course, there is also a significant roadblock to proper scheduling in 2010, the World Cup Finals. Assuming the same scheduling constraints next season as this year – a little over 35 weeks, approximately March 20th to November 20th – that would allow 71 potential match dates (36 weekend, 35 midweek). All FIFA dates combined, including the World Cup, would nix about a quarter of those dates.

The CONCACAF Champions League – the end of the 2009-10 competition and the early phases of the 2010-11 – claim another dozen dates, and the US Open Cup demands a further 7. The Canadian Championship and the SuperLiga can be scheduled day and date with other competitions. All things considered, there are 36, maybe 37, match dates for 30 League matches plus four playoff dates. A tight squeeze.

So, with a whopping two dates to spare, it could be done, but, honouring FIFA dates would have several unpleasant effects.

Obviously, taking a month long break in mid-season is less than ideal, especially when MLS attendance tends to peak in midsummer. Although this would also raise some interesting possibilities like summer friendly series or World Cup match viewing parties, since the timing of matches in South Africa could fall at convenient times.

Another knock-on effect of altering the schedule would be many more midweek matches. Each team would be required to schedule five league matches in midweek – teams now typically play two or three. Worse yet, with such fixture congestion, these five midweek dates would be fully scheduled – every team in the league would play (i.e. 2 matches Tuesday night, three matches Wednesday night, three matches Thursday night).

In addition to these regular season matches, one leg of each conference semi-final would also need to played in midweek.

Finally, there would have to be a scheduled bye week between the conference finals and the MLS Cup because there are two FIFA dates in mid-November.

With all of these obstacles a scheduling change in 2010 is looking unlikely. MLS fans who hope the league would take a step away from bush league next season should instead prepare themselves to hear the chorus of bloggers, haters and podcasters again next spring.

USL-1: Time for a Canadian Takeover?

2009-03-25T18:05:00.000-07:00

The title of this article is (as always on this blog) hyperbolic, but it does touch on a reality; outside of the Canadian contingent, this has been a difficult year for the USL First Division. The confirmation that Vancouver and Portland will move to MLS in 2011 was just the most recent bit of bad news for USL-1. In the past year, the league lost another keystone franchise in Seattle, faced the suspension of club operations in Miami and Atlanta (as of March 18th, one was in, one out for 2009), and had another key franchise, Rochester, face financial uncertainty. Contrasted against these problems, the runaway success of the USL in Canada begs the question, could the USL benefit from more Canadian content?

The USL will need to add several new clubs in the near future. Of the eleven clubs which took part in the 2008 USL season, a maximum of seven will still be around in 2011. Two of the remaining seven will still have designs on a future move to MLS*, potentially leaving only five 2008 holdovers by mid-decade. More important, the clubs moving to MLS will be the cream of the crop – perhaps four of the six healthiest clubs. Plans are already in place to add four new clubs – including two in 2009, but their success is hardly a given in a league which has operated in over 40 cities in 13 seasons, several for just one season.

Looking over that landscape, Canadian expansion might look like the blue sky on the horizon. Canada offers an economy less hard hit by recession, in which investors might be more willing and fans might be more likely to part with a few dollars on a new team; a level of interest in soccer demonstrably higher than in the US; less competition for summertime sports dollars, with the mass exodus of minor league baseball teams; and ticket sales figures that are hard to ignore, crowds for the three Canadian professional teams averaged 97.3% of capacity in 2008.

Early this decade, the creation of a Canadian league entity (with vague ties to the USL) was put forth in the Canadian United Soccer League blueprint. The Canadian league, of course, never came to pass. In that document an alternative approach was also discussed – creating a Canadian division within the existing structure of USL (then known as the A-League). In the report, the major argument against a Canadian division in USL was the, “passionate [opinion] that the future of the game in Canada should not be based on a second division American league”. The perception of the A-League as, “quite clearly a second division league to the MLS”, was seen as a roadblock to fan support in Canada. This roadblock may have been cleared somewhat in the intervening years, as the Whitecaps and Montreal Impact have done much to raise the profile and prestige of the USL in Canada.

Nevertheless, there are a couple of question marks which may make a USL franchise an unattractive purchase for a wealthy (at least semi-wealthy) Canadian investor.

Is a league with just two demonstrably successful franchises (Rochester and Charleston) – which may be the case by 2012 or 2013 – a good bet?

The paradoxical answer to this question may be yes. In fact, as the league sheds some of its larger market franchises it may become a more suitable destination for Canadian franchises. It is unlikely that many Canadian markets, outside of the existing three, could consistently draw upwards of 7000 fans – as some marquee USL franchises now do – but, if, in the near future, the remaining USL franchises are stable and successful while drawing four to five thousand fans per game, that business model may be a better fit for Canadian clubs.

What should we make of the fact that so many franchises have come and gone from the league?

This is another question that may have a paradoxical answer. The past experience of professional soccer in Canada has been of a weak, poorly monetized league entity, briefly kept afloat by a few stronger clubs, which ultimately collapses under the weight of failing weaker clubs. USL-1 stands in stark contrast to this experience. The entity itself has been stable enough for long enough to suggest that it is more than the sum of its clubs. The league has passed a test that the old CSL failed, surviving the ebbs and flows of individual clubs and remaining stable. In this sense, the comings and goings of franchises from USL-1 could be seen as a reassuring stress test.

If there is a theoretical match between USL and increased Canadian content, which specific cities are potential expansion sites?

Victoria
Pro: Canada’s best weather; history of interest in soccer; largely USL-ready stadium facility; offers the league a toe-hold on the west coast; no real professional sports competition
Con: small among current USL cities, significantly smaller than Charleston; would be isolated, without obvious geographical rivals in USL, and with very high travel costs

Calgary
Pro: Great demographic fit, a relatively young, affluent city; optimal market size for USL
Con: CFL town, a USL club would only have six weeks of lead time before the start of the CFL season, and three of those weeks would overlap a deep NHL playoff run; spotty history of support for soccer, including uneven support for previous failed USL franchise; high travel costs; stadium?

Edmonton
Pro: similar demographic fit to Calgary; similar size of market; better track record of support for soccer than Calgary, though Edmontonians tend to overrate the local support for the National Team
Con: another CFL/NHL town; circus sideshow previous entry in USL; high travel costs; stadium?

Winnipeg
Pro: appropriate size for USL city; potential geographical rival for Minnesota, which has been isolated since the failure of the Milwaukee franchise; history of decent support for MNT; soccer complex could accommodate a USL franchise, at least in a bare bones fashion
Con: CFL city with a popular AHL franchise; despite relatively close proximity to Minnesota it would still promise high travel costs

Southern Ontario
There are a few of potential locations in Southern Ontario: Hamilton/St. Catharines; Kitchener-Waterloo/Cambridge/Guelph; London
Pro: decent population base in each centre; no professional sports competition in London or KWC; would be an obvious rival for the vital Rochester franchise
Con: does TFC dominate this market?; mishmash of stadium options in different cities with no obvious favourite

Ottawa
Pro: strong interest in soccer, possibly stronger after the MLS bid; great potential investors if bid team can be brought on-side; optimal city size
Con: CFL team appears to be inbound eventually, though interest in the gridiron game is notably low; would be using USL as a stepping stone to MLS; stadium?

Quebec City
Pro: largest market in Canada with neither a CFL or NHL team; stadium adequate for USL use; for USL, may have a positive association with Montreal, since both are in Quebec
Con: will not happen while the Montreal Impact is in USL, since the Saputo’s ‘own’ the territory; little past evidence of interest in professional soccer

Halifax
Pro: no professional sports at all in market, with clear pent up demand
Con: similar to Victoria; small among current USL cities; would be isolated, though not so much as Victoria; Huskies Stadium would be a stop-gap without a major overhaul

Notes:

- If I were running USL-1 I would do the following over the next few years: create a 16-team, four-division structure, South West, South East, North East and Mid West, playing an unbalanced 28 game schedule. Expand further into the Southwestern US, to Phoenix, Las Vegas and one other city, which, along with Austin, would comprise the South West division. Expand to Winnipeg, Southern Ontario and Ottawa. When the time comes and the MLS absconds with Montreal and Ottawa, replace the former with Quebec City and consider Halifax for the latter.

- I know this has been demonstrated on at least four separate occasions, (NASL, CPSL, CSL & USL) but, Western Canada is a very tough place to make professional soccer fly. Travel costs, venue problems and Hockey Love/Football Love make success there hard to envision.

- Could Canada’s largely empty baseball stadia be an answer for some of the stadium questions above? If you have watched a match played at Community America Ballpark in Kansas City your answer would be a resounding no. If you have watched a match played at Buck Shaw Stadium in San Jose you might well say yes. As far as I can tell from a brief investigation, baseball fields adapt well for soccer if stands are at right angles to one another, and don’t angle closer to the baseline in the outfield. Buck Shaw has this ideal arrangement, which allows a soccer field to run alongside the stands, while at Community America it floats in the outfield. Unfortunately, disused stadia in Ottawa and Edmonton are more like Community America. Calgary's Foothills Stadium is the only candidate for the Buck Shaw treatment.

Good: Buck Shaw Stadium

Bad: Community America Ballpark

* Montreal and Miami, although the Miami USL franchise would not be the entity bidding for an MLS club, it is unlikely a USL club would exist alongside an MLS one.

TFC: State of the Roster

2009-02-10T18:02:00.000-08:00

So, I’ve been holding off writing this post for six weeks at least. Every time I sit down to write about the state of the Toronto FC roster, I find a fresh article quoting Mo Johnston, claiming that new players are on the way, “Aye, we got two more boys we’re looking at…”.

TFC: State of the Roster

Looking at the Toronto FC roster, it is important to remember that an ideal roster would offer four options at most positions, and five options at striker and central defense – since these are often two spots. In its short history, TFC has borne this out; lacking proper depth, they have often been left short due to injury and international absence.

In terms of international absence, this season will be no different. As of today, TFC will likely be without Amado Guevara (Honduras), Carl Robinson (Wales) and Marvell Wynne (USA) for matches on March 28th, June 6th and October 10th. Additionally, all three have an international on September 9th and a TFC match on the 12th, requiring a very quick turnaround.

Other scheduling landmines – including the Gold Cup, which overlaps three TFC matches – are spread throughout the schedule. One that stands out is the October 10th match date – which could be vital to playoff aspirations. In addition to Guevara, Robinson and Wynne, TFC will likely be missing its U-20 players, Nana Attakora and Gabe Gala.

Keepers

This is the only area of surplus on the current roster, as MLS squads rarely carry three keepers – let alone three keepers of starting quality. This is even less likely now with rosters limited to 24. Incumbent starter, and occasional Canadian International, Greg Sutton is unlikely to move because of his salary and status as a domestic player. Stefan Frei is also unlikely to move because, as a Generation Adidas player, he does not occupy a senior roster spot. Brian Edwards could be attractive to several teams; he has a reasonable salary, has already shown up well at MLS level, and has even been called into a USMNT camp.

Surpluses: 1 Keeper (likely Brian Edwards)
Shortages: none

Defenders

Left Back was an obvious position of strength before the Todd Dunivant move. It now looks like it needs reinforcement. Dunivant was clearly too good, and too well paid, to be a depth player at this level, but, Kevin Harmse is a stop-gap left back, and Gabe Gala played all of twelve minutes with the big club last season, and 234 in his TFC career – spending most of that time on the wing.

At the start of this off-season the ugly potential outcome at Centre Back was starting another season with a Marco Velez - Tyrone Marshall tandem. With Marshall gone, this thankfully cannot happen. As it stands now, however, TFC still need an in-house option to step up in order to improve. There are actually a few ways this could happen. Harmse or Nana Attakora could deliver on the promise they showed in short stints in the centre last year. Alternatively, if Sam Cronin were to establish himself in midfield, Carl Robinson could slide to the back. Though, even if one of those players move in, that could still leave Velez in place – a less than ideal outcome. On the upside, if a player or two are added, and Attakora, Harmse and Velez start the season on the bench that would be quality depth for MLS.

With solid starter Marvell Wynne – who took his play to another level last season – Right Back does not look like a crisis area. As of now, however, come October 10th, when Wynne and Attakora are away, Marco Velez will be the only obvious option to fill in.

Surpluses: none
Shortages: 1 Full Back (who can play on either side); 2 Centre Backs

Central Midfielders

With Amado Guevara likely moving into a deeper position this season, the centre of the TFC midfield could resemble the brief period last season when Carl Robinson, Maurice Edu and Guevara played together; with De Rosario playing the attacking role. Robinson and Guevara should be ably understudied by Sam Cronin and Kevin Harmse.

Surpluses: none
Shortages: none

Wingers

John Carver insists that Dwayne De Rosario will not spend much of his time working the wings, which takes this from a position of decent strength to another potential shortage. The potential move of Johann Smith from the subs bench into the lineup weakens both lineup and bench. The club should add an MLS-ready winger to push Smith.

Surpluses: none
Shortages: 1 Winger

Attackers

TFC should have strong options upfront, with a wealth of strikers with different skill sets and the ability to adopt different formations (especially when O’Brian White returns to fitness). Pablo Vitti is less likely to succeed than it might seem – as he has never scored consistently at any professional level – but, he obviously had a pedigree as a youth player that no player in TFC history can match. TFC has enough depth at striker and that they can take a chance on catching lightning in a bottle.

When they play with five midfielders, as they often may, Toronto FC will have two top notch options at Attacking Midfield in Dwayne De Rosario and Amado Guevara. Tyler Rosenlund showed promise last season as an understudy to Guevara.

Surpluses: none
Shortages: none

Overall

One can be cynical and note the bottom line; that the second worst offence in the league has no new MLS-proven strikers and the fifth worst defence has no new defenders at all.. At the same time, it is easy to be encouraged about the offensive end, with three midfielders with demonstrated offensive flair and four young strikers vying to become stars. Ultimately, though, no one involved with TFC – fans, players or management – would be happy to see Velez trot out on opening day.

Surpluses: 1 Keeper
Shortages: 1 Full Back; 2 Centre Backs; 1 Winger

Best Lineup (as of 2/10/09) - 4-1-3-2

--------------Sutton
-------Velez---------Harmse
Wynne--------Robinson------Brennan
--------------Guevara
-----Ricketts—--------DeRo
---------Barrett--Vitti

Personal Notes

- It is hard to be critical of Mo Johnston’s SuperDraft performance (since everyone else on earth is calling it the Best Draft In League History), but I feel like Mo left team need on the back burner and went with a best available player strategy. This team would look significantly better now if he had gone for defender Kevin Alston with the fourth pick, and taken his chances on White falling to them later. Alston is a perfect fit for this team, he would provide needed depth on both sides at fullback – especially since they had in mind to trade Dunivant – and emergency depth on the wing. Moreover, he would have been an ideal understudy to Marvell Wynne, in the not unlikely event that he ships off to Europe.

- I am almost sorry to have to repeat myself, since I wrote long-windedly about related issues already, but Andre Hainault and Kennedy Owusu-Ansah would have been solid additions to this team. At 22, Hainault has a solid resume for a prospective starting CB at this level. Kennedy brings a bit of what Kevin Alston would have brought to the table, though he is younger and likely less MLS-ready. These go on my list of Canada-fan grievances against Mo – though Will Johnson still tops that list.

- I will cut Mo some slack on his treatment of Joey Melo and Derek Gaudet, two young and somewhat promising Canadians who were released by the club. New roster regulations leave little room for inexperienced players, Mo has a higher level of confidence in Gabe Gala, Nana Attakora and Tyler Rosenlund, and Generation Adidas players fill half of TFC’s development spots.

- I appreciate the Voyageurs’ effort to oust Dale Mitchell from the National Team – I am not his biggest fan – but I suspect the CSA will not make a change anytime soon. For one thing, they seem to believe that Stephen Hart has a job and can’t just step in as some suggest. If I had to speculate, I would bet that many in the CSA imagine that John Liminatis will be an attractive (and cheap) option by the time the 2011 Gold Cup rolls around.

So, how bad was it?

2008-11-22T09:46:00.000-08:00

Obviously, this goes without saying - but this qualifying round was not a great success for Canada. They gained two points from six matches. They went the full group round without a win. Overall, they finished level on points with Suriname, although they did edge them on goal difference – a worthy accomplishment indeed. And yet, despite the ugly numbers, those who portray the campaign as five hundred and forty minutes of consecutive blunders are mistaken – less went wrong than most believe.

Fully four out of the six matches played out exactly as an impartial observer would have expected. A one goal loss at Mexico – in which Canada held El Tri at bay for 60 minutes – was about as good an outcome as could have been expected. Likewise, the loss at Honduras – a match that was level through 65 – was predictable. Historically, Canada has been good for a draw when hosting Mexico, so the 2-2 final in Edmonton was to be expected. And, given the circumstances and the squad selection, the final match was hardly surprising.

The seeds of Canada’s failure were sown in the other two matches – at home to Jamaica and Honduras. Canada’s pathway to the hex was always to go into the final match with seven points from their home matches, and to hope that the rest of the group played out in such a way that 8 or 10 points could move them through. As it turned out, the rest of the group did play out favourably; if Canada had perfomed at home and gone to Jamaica with 7 points, Jamaica and Honduras would have entered their final matches on 6 and Canada would have had a fighting chance.

The Dale Mitchell era will be remembered by most as an unmitigated disaster, but the meaningful errors – the errors that doomed Canada to failure – numbered just two: Pat Onstad’s (essentially) own goal against Jamaica; and Dale Mitchell’s disastrous performance against Honduras (detailed here).

Those who believe the lesson of this round was that Boogey Man Dale Mitchell kills everything he touches miss the point. The lesson that the CSA should take away is that – in the current qualifying scheme – Canada has no margin for error at all. The argument against Mitchell or a coach of similar quality is not that he is a bumbling oaf (which he may be), it's that Canada cannot afford a coach who makes even one error, let alone many. With all of the other factors that work against Canada, their coach cannot be another. In the dream scenario, Canada would find a coach who raises their level, but, in 2008, even a neutral presence – who made them neither better nor worse – might have been enough to see them progress.

Personal Notes

- A few eyebrows were raised about the squad selection against Jamaica. I personally didn’t have much of a problem with it. I think Charles Gbeke and Sandro Grande were selected as a kind of acknowledgment of the success of their respective clubs this season. Aside from them, Chris Williams was the only choice from out of left field, but if one were to make a list of players who were on the continent, playing consistently and willing to come, that list may have been one name long.

- Walking home from the Jamaica match in August, I said to my wife (who was attending her first match), “Well, Canada is out. They pretty much can’t qualify now.”. At the time I was perhaps half joking, but now it seems like an accurate assessment.

- Beyond the failure to move through, I think my greatest disappointment of this campaign was that the final match was meaningless. I had actually made arrangements to go to see the final match in Jamaica. I booked off the time, set aside the funds, and semi-convinced the wife. Now we’re off to Saint Lucia instead.

- Volumes have been written, including some by me, about the mistakes that Dale Mitchell made during this qualifying cycle. But he made what was perhaps a more vital error in the friendly build up to qualifying. Mitchell steadfastly refused to entertain any alternatives in defence. Not including the Martinque match (essentially a B-match): Paul Stalteri played in all six friendlies; Mike Klukowski played in five (Jim Brennan only started the Costa Rica match in front of his home fans); and only Richard Hastings, Andre Hainault and Adrian Serioux appeared more than once in the centre (Daniel Imhof and Kevin McKenna made one appearance each, in emergency situations). Clearly the net should have been cast wider; the weakness at the back was the source of much of the pain in the qualifying cycle.

2014: Could It Be Worse?

2008-10-15T15:18:00.000-07:00

Since long before this qualifying campaign began, I have had a great sense of impending doom. This was not just because all of my past experiences told me I should; it was also because of the feeling that this was it; this was the window of opportunity. If Canada were to miss out this time, the Greatest National Team ever assembled would go to waste, and the personnel losses would mean that we would be back to square one.

Was I right to feel this way? How is the player pool going to look come the 2014 cycle. Will Canada be forced to start Chris Pozniak at attacking midfield? Will Canada need to call Garret Kusch back from the training table to strike the ball?

As it turns out, no. I may not have been right to tear my hair. It may be too early for many Canada fans to try to think positive; but there really is no reason to suspect the 2014 team will look much weaker on paper than the current one.

Who is likely to return and who is as good as gone?

Here is the current pool; every player Dale Mitchell called (ex. Martinique).
- Included is the approximate age of the player in 2014.
- In brackets is a player of similar age during the 2010 cycle (or before).

Very Likely to Return
Julian de Guzman, 33 (same age as Daniel Imhof, circa. 2010)
Marcel de Jong, 27
André Hainault, 28
Atiba Hutchinson, 31 (Patrice Bernier)

Likely
Iain Hume, 30 (Bernier)
Issey Nakajima-Farran, 30 (Bernier)

Probable
David Edgar, 27
Lars Hirschfeld, 35 (Pat Onstad, circa. 2003)
Dejan Jakovic, 29
Will Johnson, 27
Mike Klukowski, 33 (Jim Brennan)
Nik Ledgerwood, 29
Jaime Peters, 27

Possible
Asmir Begovic, 27
Dwayne De Rosario, 36 (Tomasz Radzinski)
Rob Friend, 33 (Corazzin & Peschisolido, circa 2004)
Kevin McKenna, 34 (Randy Samuel, circa. 1998)
Josh Simpson, 31 (Bernier)
Joshua Wagenaar, 29

Unlikely
Patrice Bernier, 34
Adrian Cann, 33
Rhian Dodds, 34
Ali Gerba, 32
Kevin Harmse, 30
Olivier Occean, 32
Tam Nsaliwa, 32
Chris Pozniak, 33
Adrian Serioux, 35
Kenny Stamatopoulos, 34
Greg Sutton, 37

Very Unlikely
Jim Brennan, 37
Richard Hastings,37
Daniel Imhof, 36
Ante Jazic, 38
Pat Onstad, 46
Tomasz Radzinski, 40
Paul Stalteri, 36

Using only the players Probable or better, this would be a potential lineup.

------------------Hirschfeld

----------Hainault-----------Edgar

Ledgerwood-----------------------------de Jong

---------Hutchinson--------de Guzman

--Peters---------------------------Nakajima-Farran

------------Hume------------Johnson

Adding Possible players to the above, this would be a potential lineup.

-----------------------Hirschfeld

---------------Hainault----------McKenna
--Ledgerwood------------------------------de Jong

--------------Hutchinson--------de Guzman

Nakajima-Farran-------------------------De Rosario

---------------Johnson
---------------------------------Friend

Hume
Peters
Simpson
Edgar
Jakovic
Klukowski
Begovic/Wagenaar

Interestingly, even without adding any new recruits, the 2014 squad looks fairly complete, though not stellar.

Obviously, there would be room for improvement, but the only true shortage is at Centre Forward. Olivier Occean and Ali Gerba will be both be thirty-two before the 2014 World Cup. Rob Friend will be 33. Canada has rarely, if ever, had an effective striker of that age. Paul Peschisolido and Carlo Corazzin were both 33 when they ground to a halt with Canada in 2004. Dale Mitchell played fairly effectively to 35, but largely played in midfield toward the end of his career. John Catliff and Alex Bunbury were long retired from internationals by 32.

It is true that Canada may have wasted the prime of Julian de Guzman and Dwayne De Rosario, but both are decent bets to carry on to the next cycle. It is comforting to note the comparables: de Guzman will be the age in the 2014 cycle that Daniel Imhof is now; De Rosario will be the age that Tomasz Radzinski is now. Both will likely change as players, but neither should be written off.

Possible Additions: early candidates

Dale Mitchell has maintained a veteran squad in this cycle, rarely including younger players in his selection. Despite that, his pool included 4 players from the 2007 U-20 squad and several more from the 2005 team. It is next to impossible to project the future of players who will not turn 20 until 2011, but one has to assume that several players will be added to the squad between now and 2014. Ages are as of 2014.

Nana Attakora, 25 D
Brandon Bonifacio, 25 M
Mike D'Agostino, 27 M
Ethan Gage, 23 D/M
Tyler Hemming, 29 D/M
David Hoilett, 24 F
Simeon Jackson, 27 F/M
Paris Nakajima-Farran, 25 D/M
Andrew Ornoch, 29 F/M
Tosaint Ricketts, 27 F/M
Tyler Rosenlund, 28 M
Adam Street, 23 K

2014 Squad: early estimate, very early estimate

As nice as it would be to imagine that great young players might fall from the sky, very few players who are not already on the radar at this moment (October 2008) will be involved in the next qualifying cycle. This time out, Mitchell called in 29 players for qualifying matches, and virtually all of them were kicking around 4 years ago. Coming into 2008, 19 had played in previous qualifiers; 1 had debuted for the Senior Team before the last cycle, but was not used in qualifiers; 2 had played for previous U20 teams (1 in 2001, 1 in 2003); and 3 were involved in a series of U20 friendlies in 2003 and 2004.* That leaves only three of 29 players who had yet to be involved in a National Team program by 2004. These were Adrian Cann, Dejan Jakovic and Issey Nakajima-Farran. So, I wouldn’t stake my life on calling the entire future lineup; but, I also wouldn’t expect 30 new players to appear.

Keepers
Asmir Begovic
Lars Hirschfeld
Adam Street
Joshua Wagenaar

Defenders
Central
David Edgar
André Hainault
Dejan Jakovic
Mike Klukowski
Kevin McKenna
Wide
Nana Attakora
Marcel de Jong
Tyler Hemming
Nik Ledgerwood
Paris Nakajima-Farran

Midfielders
Central
Julian de Guzman
Ethan Gage
Atiba Hutchinson
Tyler Rosenlund
Mike D'Agostino
Wide
Dwayne De Rosario
Simeon Jackson
Issey Nakajima-Farran
Jaime Peters
Josh Simpson

Forwards
Rob Friend
David Hoilett
Iain Hume
Will Johnson
Andrew Ornoch
Tosaint Ricketts

Off the top of my head, this pool looks very promising. I would say – just spit-balling – that: the wide midfielders and keepers look like a wash compared to this year’s squad; the wide defenders and central midfielders look weaker; and the forwards and central defenders could be significantly stronger. At the very least, I think we can imagine being in with a fighting chance in the next cycle. Some comfort, though not much.

The imperative is to cut ties with the older generation of players, those Very Unlikely to be around, as well as several of the Unlikely set. Especially since friendlies will likely be hard to come by for the next two years at least. The CSA can set the tone for the next four years by dimissing with thanks – or not – the old guard in advance of the Jamaica match.

*
- 1 debuted for ST before last cycle, was not used in qualifiers = Rob Friend
- 2 played for previous U20 teams = 2001, Ali Gerba; 2003, Nik Ledgerwood
- 3 in U20 friendlies 03&04 = Marcel de Jong, Andre Hainault, Josh Wagenaar

Canada v Honduras: Thoughts in Advance of the Match

2008-10-11T09:07:00.000-07:00

It is a little hard to blame Dale Mitchell for his selections this time out – given the raft of forced absences to the squad. No team in CONCACAF save Mexico (but including the US) would look great with this many absences in midfield; arguably Canada is missing six of its ten top midfielders*. It is a little hard to blame Mitchell for his choices, but not impossible.

The problem comes down to the choice to include Kevin Harmse, Chris Pozniak and Dejan Jakovic. Obviously, under normal circumstances, none of these players would have been included – but, given the circumstances, Mitchell has genuinely been forced to move this far down the depth chart. In fact, in dire circumstances, it is not too hard to come up with a case for including each player. Harmse brings some steel and has performed decently of late in central-defence. Pozniak is a Swiss-Army Knife (or the off-brand-dollar-store-Chinese-import equivalent of a Swiss-Army Knife). Jakovic is likewise flexible, and additionally could step into central defence in a pinch/disaster. Ultimately, Mitchell has chosen all three players because he has rightly seen a severe shortage in the centre of midfield, and wrongly over-compensated for the shortage.

The upshot of this over-compensation is that Canada is left short at attacking midfielder, centre forward and on the wings (though, one must keep in mind that, despite reams of evidence to the contrary, Mitchell does still believe Patrice Bernier is a winger.)

Another (read: A qualified) Head Coach would have made the glaringly obvious choice to include Will Johnson in place of Harmse or Jakovic, and thus shored up all of the shortages in Mitchell’s selection. Which means, once Mitchell has made his standard like-for-like substitutions (ie Iain Hume for Tomasz Radzinski and Ali Gerba for Rob Friend) Canada will once again be left without a single attacking substitute.

- As dire as the midfield situation will be against Honduras, it will be interesting to see if Atiba Hutchinson can step up and become a dominant force. He sees little of the ball when he shares the centre with Julian de Guzman; and often seems lost when Dwayne De Rosario joins them, playing centrally. With neither in the lineup Hutchinson has a real chance to stamp his influence on the match. A dominant performance from him is Canada’s best chance of taking three points in Honduras.

For what its worth, here are the chances that Canada can qualify for the hex:

With a victory at Honduras, 23 of 81 possible outcomes would see Canada level on better on points; 14 of 81 permutations would see Canada ahead, 9 level (making goal differential key).

With a draw at Honduras, 3 of 81 possible outcomes see Canada level or better; 1 ahead, 2 level.

With a loss at Honduras, chances are nil.

Ideal Lineup (Assumes McKenna understudies at Striker)

---------------Hirschfeld

-------Hainault-----Hastings

Stalteri-------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson--Bernier

Ledgerwood-------------Radzinski

----------Gerba------Friend

Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

---------Hainault-----Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson----Harmse

--------------Radzinski
Bernier------------------------de Jong

----------------Friend

* The obvious absentees are: Julian de Guzman; Dwayne De Rosario; Josh Simpson; Issey Nakajima-Farran; and Daniel Imhof. The sixth, arguably is Adrian Serioux, though one could certainly argue the merits of Tam Nsaliwa (not Jim Brennan).

Thoughts in advance of Canada v Mexico

2008-09-09T20:18:00.000-07:00

- So, occasionally doing research is a mistake. Here I was trying to feel better about Canada’s chances on Wednesday night. Sure, they must win in Mexico – but at least the match isn’t at Azteca. Well, as it turns out, upon closer inspection, Canada is no better off at Tuxtla Gutierrez.

In the last five years, Mexico has 17 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss on home soil (with 70 goals for; 12 goals against). At Azteca, 6 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss (16 goals for; 4 goals against). Elsewhere in Mexico, 11 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses (54 goals for; 8 goals against). If anything they’ve performed better away from the big city. Away from Azteca, they’ve had an average goal differential of 3.5, more than double their average differential at Azteca. (Of course, they tend to save Azteca for tougher opponents; the average FIFA rank of their opponents there was 20 spots higher.)

Worse news: Mexico has pounded on middling teams like Canada everywhere they’ve hosted them. Against teams ranked 56 to 106 (25 spots either side of Canada’s current rank) they are 7-0-0 (22 goals for, only 4 against).

- I was amused by Dale Mitchell’s comment, that he is, “contemplating getting [Dwayne De Rosario] out on the wing to try to get him in a 1-v-1 situation”. Like the Titanic’s Captain was contemplating steering around the iceberg.

Luckily, Mitchell may have no choice but to improve his squad choices against Mexico. As far as I know (as of 11 pm Tuesday) he will need to add Issey Nakajima-Farran and Oliver Occean to the match day squad in place of Patrice Bernier and Tomasz Radzinski. By my count, that is two attacking players added and one subtracted (I’m sure Mitchell would prefer fewer, but I digress).

- The real coffin nail from the debacle on Saturday was that Honduras gained 3 road points. In a sense, Canada would have been better to lose to Jamaica and draw Honduras. In all likelihood Jamaica would never have reached 9 points regardless; whereas, Honduras is now virtually guaranteed 8 points, and with even a little luck they’ll take ten.

- The lineups are pretty speculative: they assume Issey is healthy and Mitchell is an idiot.

Ideal Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

--------Serioux------Klukowski

Stalteri----------------------Brennan

-------Hutchinson--de Guzman

Issey---------------------De Rosario

---------Gerba------Friend

Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

--------Serioux------------Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson----de Guzman

------------- De Rosario
Issey------------------------Brennan

---------------Friend

What Can A National Team Head Coach Do?

2008-09-07T08:59:00.000-07:00

Let’s be honest, a national team head coach cannot do a lot to affect his team’s success. With limited time and limited access to his players, he is not going to have a great effect on the quality of players on the pitch. In fact, even the tactical instruction that he imparts will not have a huge impact given these constraints. For the most part, his players will only have the quality and the tactical knowledge they bring with them from their club experience. This is doubly true for a Canadian coach, given that he will have greater time and access limitations than most.

What does that leave? The only cards the international coach has to play are squad selection, substitution, and inspiration. These are the limited tools available to him to separate his squad from the fray. It is Dale Mitchell’s total failure in use of these tools that warrants his immediate removal as the Head Coach of the Canadian National Team.

Against Honduras, Mitchell’s squad choices – both starters and bench – were poor, and were exposed to disastrous effect. The tandem of Adrian Serioux and Richard Hastings was ineffective throughout. Mitchell should not really be blamed for performance: Serioux repeatedly lost the plot completely, and both were terrible closing players down. However, had Mitchell asked himself, ‘who are my best defenders’ or ‘who is most important to their club’, he would have landed on Jim Brennan alongside Mike Klukowski, with one playing centrally. He was stuck with Serioux, perhaps, but including Brennan would have been a marked improvement.

Mitchell’s selection of Patrice Bernier, and, more vitally, his positioning on the right flank was ultimately ruinous. Bernier is simply not effective as a true winger – he rarely plays outside of central midfield for his club – and, as a result, the right side was a black hole, narrowing the Canadian attack, and allowing Honduras to slide its left-sided players more to the centre in defence, disrupting Canada’s dominant central players. Mitchell could easily have chosen Bernier and played him centrally, moving Julian de Guzman forward, sliding Dwayne De Rosario to the left, and swapping Radzinski to the right. He didn’t, and the error was compounded when Tomasz Radzinski was removed due to injury, and Iain Hume – the only winger on the bench – was forced into the match early into a rare, awkward stint on the left.

This pointed to the worst mistake Mitchell made against Honduras: the substitutes bench. Mitchell was always going to make a striker for striker swap, and Radzinski and Hume essentially share one spot, so for all intents and purposes Canada did not even have one extra attacker or midfielder. When Canada went down a goal in the 56th minute, they did not have a single card to play for offence. True, the camp squad didn’t offer many options – since Issey Nakajima-Farran was clearly out of form – but if Mitchell had selected Oliver Occean for match day, he could have subbed Occean in for Bernier and moved to a 4-4-2 with De Rosario and Hume on the wings. The obvious additional question is why Nakajima-Farran wasn’t replaced in camp. True, Josh Simpson has yet to return from injury, and Jamie Peters is in no man’s land, but Will Johnson could have been brought in a moment’s notice, and, as it turned out, could have filled a vital role.

Finally, it would be difficult to imagine a less inspirational figure than Dale Mitchell. Before the match Dale Mitchell was visibly the most nervous man in the building; high in the running for most nervous man in the country. During the match, he shuffles impassively, but does nothing to rally or embolden his team. The contrast between Mitchell and Stephen Hart, who was so forceful and animated when he led Canada in its only recent positive form, could not have been more stark.

Yes, there are terrible institutional problems, both at the CSA and at CONCACAF, that make the job difficult, perhaps impossible, for a Canadian coach. The consistently arbitrary and unfair group draws; the lack of friendly matches; the lack of funds; the poor venue selection: these, and other, challenges may make it impossible for Canadian squads to qualify. At the same time, it is hard not to imagine that a Rene Simoes-led Canada would have banked four or six points by now.

Give Dale Mitchell a shot to pull off a miracle in Mexico. After he fails there, fire him, promote Stephen Hart to head coach, and bring John Limniatis – currently the only successful Canadian-born coach in football not named Frank Yallop – into the program as an occasional assistant coach.

Personal Reflections: Before Canada v. Honduras

2008-09-06T06:56:00.000-07:00

This must win match (and make no mistake, it is a must win) has me a little stressed. That may be why, today, I am questioning the tried and true; or a least, the tried and somewhat factual.

I think – despite past successes in the formation – it is time for Canada to take a one match hiatus from the 4-5-1. Given the decent form (either for club or country) of three strikers, the lack of good options for the fifth midfield spot, and the need to play to win, Canada should employ a 4-4-2 versus the Hondurans.

With Daniel Imhof unavailable, Issey Nakajima-Farran out of form, Iain Hume reserved for late-match use, and Patrice Bernier worsening by the day (I know this is harsh, but my heart sank a little when his name was announced before the Jamaica match) it is time to see what Ali Gerba and Rob Friend can do as a tandem force.

Moving beyond the midfield, my second source of stress is at the back. Against Jamaica, my heart sank further when Richard Hastings was announced. As the match wore on this feeling did not lessen as the opponent had an uncomforting amount of success inside the 18. I know that CONCACAF opponents are not generally known for their quality in the air (and Jamaica was no different) but the Canadian central defenders were notably weak on balls played to heads. Again, I know Germany is not on the qualifying schedule, and this weakness might not affect Canadian’s chances, but it may affect the health of my heart tissue.

I understand, and appreciate, that coach Dale Mitchell likes how Hastings moves the ball – and this is a nice quality to have – but not at the expense of sound marking. Given Kevin McKenna’s club status, I would call for an 85% chance of Hastings around 8pm in Montreal, and a 70% chance of a Hastings - Adrian Serioux combination. I will understand the choice, but I sure won’t love it.

Source of stress number three is the keeper situation. This could easily be source of stress number one, but I am trying not to think about it. Ultimately, I don’t think Mitchell can be faulted for his selection no matter who he chooses. There are no perfect options here. Prayer is likely the one I’ll choose.

Source of stress number four was added to the mix just this morning. Through the Voyageurs board I was linked to a YouTube video of goals from past Honduras – Canada matches; I was stuck with terror by more than just the hairstyles. Honduras has been good for at least one penalty kick per match. I had to stop watching before seeing Amado Guevara do his thing. Not a good feeling.

So, now that you’ve read all of this, have a good day, and a great match. For what it’s worth, and on the upside, I genuinely feel that eight points will be good enough to advance in second from this group. Check out group 1 from 2006 qualifying for a comparable situation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(CONCACAF)

Ideal 4-4-2 Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

--------Serioux------Klukowski

Stalteri----------------------Brennan

-------Hutchinson--de Guzman

Radzinski------------------De Rosario

---------Gerba------Friend

Less than Ideal 4-5-1 Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

--------Serioux------Klukowski
Stalteri----------------------Brennan

-------Hutchinson--Bernier

--------------de Guzman
Radzinski------------------De Rosario

---------------Friend

Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup

------------------Onstad

--------Serioux------------Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson----de Guzman

------------- De Rosario
Bernier ---------------------Radzinski

---------------Friend

Canada v. Jamaica: Thoughts on the Selections

2008-08-14T14:17:00.000-07:00

Little to quarrel with here; the team looks very good. In the long term, it would be ideal for Lars Hirschfeld to get back into his club side – and back into the national team pool – but, since Greg Sutton and Pat Onstad have been in decent form, that is not pressing.

Ideally an 18-man squad would offer three options at each position, in case of disaster. For the most part this selection meets that requirement – if you allow that Kevin McKenna could fill in as a target forward in a pinch. The only minor shortage is at right-back. Adrian Serioux has performed well there with his club of late, and Paul Stalteri is solid, but both have a certain proclivity for red cards. If Tam Nsaliwa were available he would be a worthwhile alternative to Patrice Bernier, and would shore up the right. The best available option, Nik Ledgerwood for Iain Hume, is less attractive. Given the givens, Dale Mitchell has settled on the best possible squad.

Forwards

Rob Friend is the obvious favourite to start here; against Brazil he finally brought his improved club form to Canada. Despite his club issues, Ali Gerba could hardly be left off given his recent scoring rate for Canada.

Adding Olivier Occean, Andrzej Ornoch and David Hoilett to the mix, Canada could soon have quality depth up front for the first time since Alex Bunbury joined Dale Mitchell and John Catliff.

Midfielders

A wealth of good options present themselves in midfield. Dwayne De Rosario, Julian de Guzman, Atiba Hutchinson and Tomasz Radzinski are all givens, and, the question of who the fifth midfielder will be has four decent answers. Patrice Bernier or Daniel Imhof could be added to the central midfield or Iain Hume or Issey Nakajima-Farran could play out wide. Hume is best suited to the substitutes’ bench and Bernier took a step back last season, leaving the likely choice between Imhof and Nakajima-Farran.

Issey Nakajima-Farran has yet to impose himself on a Canada match, and has not shown flair to rival De Rosario on the left, but he is a streaky scorer for his club. Daniel Imhof is a safe, trustworthy choice who plays at a high level. Since this is a home game – and should be played to win – expect to see Nakajima-Farran make the start.

Defenders

The back four holds the only potential for Dale Mitchell to make a major misstep in his selections. He has been too loyal to Richard Hastings, who lacks the height to justify his inclusion given his lack of pace. Hastings should be seen as a depth player.

Mitchell should find room for both Jim Brennan and Mike Klukowski. This would involve shifting Klukowski to central defence, where he played several times for his club this past season. Both players tackle well and are good on the ball, and Brennan is strong on set pieces – not an abundant skill in this squad. Since Mitchell has yet to attempt this arrangement do not expect to see it for this match.

Ideally, Mitchell would pair Klukowski with McKenna, who has rarely appeared for Canada under the Mitchell. This would be a good pairing of a fast player with a tall one. However, given his recent selections, it would not be a surprise to see Hastings and Serioux start the match.

Paul Stalteri is a given to start at right-back.

Goalkeepers

Its a bit of a toss-up between Greg Sutton and Pat Onstad, but Onstad and the Houston Dynamo have been on a tremendous defensive run, having conceded only 2 goals in their last 8 league matches.

Ideal Lineup

---------------Onstad

--------McKenna------Klukowski
Stalteri----------------------Brennan

------Hutchinson------Imhof

--------------de Guzman
Radzinski------------------De Rosario

---------------Friend

Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup

------------------Onstad

--------Serioux------------Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Brennan

-------Hutchinson-------de Guzman

---------------De Rosario
Radzinski------------------Nakajima-Farran

---------------Friend

Olympic Sponsors: To Support Or To Boycott?

2008-08-07T19:02:00.000-07:00

I’m not going to express an opinion on this one way or the other – use this information how you will – but, here is a list of sponsors and partners of the 2008 Olympics, and some of the brands they produce. Run out and support them with every dollar you can lay your hands on; or try to avoid buying everything made by Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, and GE (I hope you like making your own everything) – it's up to you.

Sponsors & Partners
Adidas
Air China
Atos Origin
Bank of China
Bhpbilliton
Budweiser
China Mobile
China National Petroleum Corporation
China Netcom
Coca-Cola
General Electric
Haier
Heng Yuan Xiang China (Group) CO. Ltd.
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd.
Johnson & Johnson
Kodak
Lenovo
Manulife
McDonald’s
Omega
Panasonic
Property and Casualty Company Limited
Samsung
Sinopec
Sohu.com Inc.
State Grid Corporation of China
Tsingtao
Uni-President
UPS
Visa
Volkswagen
Yanjing Beer

Selected Brands
Acuvue; adidas; Audi; Aveeno ; Band-Aid; Benadryl ; Bengay; Bentley; Benylin; Budweiser; Bugatti; Busch; Canada Dry; Clean & Clear; Coca-Cola; Cortaid; Dasani; Fanta; Fresca; Fruitopia; Imodium; Johnson's Baby; Kodak; K-Y; Lactaid; Lamborghini; Lenovo; Listerine; Lubriderm; McDonald’s; Michelob; Minute Maid; Motrin; NBC Universal; Neosporin; Nestea; Neutrogena; Nicoderm; Nicorette; O.B. ; Odwalla; Omega; Panasonic; Pepcid AC; Polysporin; Powerade; Purell; Reach; Reactine; Reebok; Rembrandt; Rogaine; Rolaids; Rolling Rock; Samsung; Sinutab; Splenda; Stayfree; Sudafed; Swatch; TaylorMade; Tylenol; Visa; Visine; Volkswagen

Canada 2- 3 Brazil

2008-06-01T09:57:00.000-07:00

Absolute horror-show pass aside, I thought Canada would have been full measure for a draw. All-in-all I thought it was a very encouraging performance.

- The pitch was unforgivable. I know volumes have been written about the reasons that this match wasn’t played in Canada; but there are at least four venues where Canada could have hosted this match, sold as many tickets, and had a pitch no worse than the one at Qwest Field.

- Apparently, Coach Dale Mitchell listens. As suggested on these pages, against Brazil, Dwayne De Rosario played in a more central position. The squad clearly needs a little more time to make this work, but there were definitely plenty of hopeful signs.

- De Rosario and Atiba Hutchinson weren’t quite up to their normal standard. DeRo seemed more troubled than most with the quality of the pitch, and Atiba seemed to struggle a bit in trying to find his place with DeRo playing in the middle of the pitch.

- I was pretty unconvinced by Issey Nakajima-Farran. He has a role for the squad, but I’m not sure he is the answer for the starting eleven. I think one wing is covered well by Tomas Radzinski and Iain Hume, but – between the recent performances of Josh Simpson and Issey – I think the other wing is an open question if De Rosario remains in the middle.

- Pat Onstad was fine – though I would have liked to see a better effort on the second goal – but, I will be happy to see Greg Sutton get the next start given his recent run of form.

- The back was a bit of a disaster – Mike Klukowski and Paul Stalteri were fine – in fact, at times, Stalteri was playing almost in a central position. I thought Hasting was terrible, looking too small, too slow, and too unsure. I am a Serioux fan, I think he has the quality to play in the Canada set-up – but Hastings and Serioux is nowhere near an ideal pairing. My own preference would be for a Brennan-McKenna partnership – two confident, experienced players, and a good combination of size and pace.

- Rob Friend played his best match in a Canadian jersey. He looked confident on the ball, strong in his challenges, and even surprisingly pacey in chasing down passes.

- Tam Nsaliwa’s chance in the 84th minute was tantalizing. It is not hard to imagine him as the ideal fifth man in the midfield; it is hard to imagine the CSA pushing the paperwork through to get him back onside.

Kansas City 0 – 2 Toronto FC

2008-04-27T07:51:00.000-07:00

Just a quick report today. Its actually harder to come up with things to write about when Toronto FC plays a totally comfortable, competent match. That said, if I were to nit-pick, I was a little more impressed with the first forty-five last week.

- What can you say about Amado Guevara’s performance in this match; it was an absolute clinic in stylish, skillful football.

- Though Laurent Robert wasn’t a dominant figure in open play this week, he was still amazingly valuable on set pieces. Nice to see that he didn’t recede into the woodwork when he wasn’t a central figure.

- Great to see Rohan Ricketts make a couple of nice crosses, particularly with his left foot. Michael Harrington did an admirable job of keeping him from attacking the goal, and it was good to see Ricketts make the most of his possession by crossing from out wide. I liked John Carver’s choice to flip Ricketts and Robert, to get Ricketts off of Harrington.

- If I were a fan of USMNT – instead of hating them passionately (offside, my ass) – I would strongly prefer Harrington in the future to the hugely over-rated Jonathan Bornstein.

- Interesting to hear Bruce Arena’s opinion of Greg Sutton during his game commentary. Obviously the memory of Sutton’s horror-show first stint in MLS hasn’t died.

Rant for a Friday Afternoon

2008-04-25T12:55:00.000-07:00

Mo Johnston is absolutely single minded.

He cares about results on the pitch, this season – period.

He is not concerned about future TFC squads.
Come May the 8th (when Jim Brennan turns 31) TFC will have 8 presumptive starters aged 31 or over; the average age of the likely starting eleven will be 30. Since the start of the season 3 of the 4 new players signed have been aged 32 (Laurent Robert will soon be 33). The average age of the four – including Rohan Ricketts – is 31.

He places no value on the development squad – except as a repository for deep depth players.
This is evidenced by his refusal to fully staff the 10-man squad and his summary dismissal of most of last year’s squad.

He could not care less about developing the game in Canada. Evidence on this point if rife: among other things; he petitioned to have his ‘Canadian quota’ reduced; he has been seen to drag his feet at every turn in the creating an academy; he turns every stone in England looking for an assistant coach, when the impressive Canadian coach Nick Dasovic is available.

On each of these points Mo Johnston takes the wrong approach for the future quality of the squad and success of the franchise.

Successful franchises in MLS – that is franchises that succeed year-after-year – simply do not build by recruiting older, pricier players. Perpetual finalists New England and Houston were both built on a core of players who were recruited young and who spent their peak years with the club.

In Houston, Wade Barrett; Brian Mullen; Eddie Robinson; Ryan Cochrane; Dwayne De Rosario; Craig Waibel; Ricardo Clark; Brian Ching; and Brad Davis were recruited to the squad at an average age of 23. Only Davis had a previous track record of success in MLS. Having built this nucleus, Houston simply added a couple of established veterans to form the squad that won the MLS cup.

In New England, Taylor Twellman; Andy Dorman; Pat Noonan; Adam Cristman; Shalrie Joseph; Jeff Larentowicz; Khano Smith; Jay Heaps; Michael Parkhurst; Wells Thompson; James Riley were recruited to the squad also at an average age of 23. Only Heaps had a previous track record of success in MLS.

Successful MLS squads are built, not bought.

As for building the game in Canada, this may or may not be a necessary element to building a successful franchise. Perhaps, Toronto FC could continue to rule the psyches and wallets of a band of fans large enough to fill BMO Field without building the game in Canada-at-large one iota. But, there is strong evidence against this model – dominating a small, devoted market without expanding general interest – working in North American sports.

The stagnation of the National Hockey League in America is perfect evidence of the failure of this approach. Without an abundance of home-grown talent, without the game taking root in local soil, Hockey has always been a niche sport in America. A guest sport, hosted by Americans, played by foreigners. This is the future for TFC if they do not move beyond token efforts to include Canadian players in its future plans.

When Mo Johnston waived Tyler Hemming it was clear that he was working at cross purposes to what is best for the franchise long-term, and the game in Canada. His goal is to win now and protect his own position.

For what its worth, this likely will not hurt Hemming, there are two teams – in Canada alone – that would be better suited to developing his career. By European standards, at 22 Hemming may not be as advanced as a player as he should be. But this is precisely the age when well run MLS franchises begin their player development process. Unfortunate then, that Mo Johnston is in the self-protection business, rather than the player development business.

Real Salt Lake 0 – 1 Toronto FC

2008-04-19T12:13:00.000-07:00

It is obviously a great result for the boys to move to .500 for the first time in club history. However, as Carver said in his post match interview, it was clearly a tale of two halves – as the second half was a little troubling for TFC. It seemed as though, when they were not having the run of possession, the lack of pace up front caused glaring problems for Toronto. The Danny Dichio/Amado Guevara tandem works well in a possession game, but weak when possession is sparse and the offence is reliant on quick breaks against the run of play.

Game Notes

- The two wide combinations – Laurent Robert/Jim Brennan and Rohan Ricketts/Marvell Wynne – are both perfectly complementary. Robert and Brennan have similar skills crossing the ball, and Ricketts and Wynne both have great pace. This made the first half fun to watch. Teams with weak wide defenders are going to have a terrible time with TFC this season.

- It looks as though Carver may be asking a little too much of Danny Dichio. Even in the first half, Dichio looked a step slow, perhaps winded, and one wonders if the problem might be his additional duties tracking back. At the same time, there were still several flashes of the classic Dichio on display against RSL, particularly his layoff in the 81st minute which led to a good chance at goal.

- It is clear that Carver likes Marco Velez’ skill on the ball. Despite his remarkable knack for comedy in central defence, Velez is still Carver’s man on free kicks in the TFC half. To be fair, Velez is not a central defender – and not a starter at this level – when he makes the shift to back-up Wynne at right-back both he and TFC fans will be more comfortable.

- Amazing to see and here how impressed Laurent Robert was with the Toronto crowd. Coming from a man who has seen the crowds that he has, his comments at halftime were a real compliment to TFC faithful.

- Funny moment at the end of the match when Maurice Edu looked totally disgusted when Velez attempted to give him a congratulatory hug.

Canada’s Conundrum: Where does de Guzman play?

2008-04-03T15:12:00.000-07:00

This piece could be titled ‘Can Canada clone Julian”?

At the Gold Cup, Canada showed flashes of brilliance using both a distributor – playing in front of the back four – and a creative attacking midfielder. Playing this arrangement Canada thumped Guatemala 3 – nil in what was perhaps the finest display in the history of the National Team.

Since the Gold Cup, the quest has been to find a similar arrangement without the defensive problems presented by Martin Nash in the distributor role. The only conclusion to reach at this point, is that Julian de Guzman is the best option at both positions.

In the first matches following the Gold Cup, Patrice Bernier and Daniel Imhof were used in a position similar to Nash, but neither acquitted themselves well as a distributor. Both seem better suited to the defensive midfield spot now ably filled by Atiba Hutchinson.

Against Estonia, de Guzman began the game operating in the distributor role, with Radzinski as the creative player in the hole behind Ali Gerba. After the break, de Guzman moved forward as Bernier checked-in and Radzinski slid into a wide position. Neither partner proved a useful complement to de Guzman.

So, what is left to try?

Bring in young player? In the not too distant Will Johnson may fit well in the attacking role. Tyler Hemming may well develop into an option as a distributor; he is composed on the ball and moves it around well. Its not beyond the realm of possibility that either could find themselves in the squad, but neither offers much comfort as a starting option.

Dwayne De Rosario as an attacking midfielder? He is the only player with skill to match de Guzman. He often plays in a central attacking role with his club. And Canada has good options to fill his role on the wing in Issey Nakajima-Ferran and Josh Simpson.

This set-up would look like this:

Nakajima-Ferran----------------------------Radzinski
-------------De Rosario----------------Hutchinson
----------------------------de Guzman

This squad may be questionable defensively, but no more so than the one that went the first 45 against Estonia. It also allows for a straight substitution – like Imhof for Nakajima-Ferran – to bolster the defense.

Amado Guevara: Canada’s Undertaker?

2008-04-02T07:27:00.000-07:00

Did you know that it was TFC target Amado Guevara who drove the first nail in Canada’s coffin in the last World Cup Qualifying cycle?

Actually, it was the second nail. And when it was all over, Canada’s coffin was more nail than pine, but Guevara’s goal hurt them badly. Canada already had a home loss on the books when they entered the match against Honduras in Edmonton in September 2004. Eighty-eight minutes in, Canada was looking good for 3 points – up 1-nil - when Honduras was awarded a questionable penalty. Guevara slotted it home, and Honduras held on - through another, even more questionable, decision called back a second Canadian goal – for the draw.

Guevara would be the first TFC player who has previously tallied a goal against Canada, though others have played against Canada: Carl Robinson started and went 75 minutes against Canada in 2004; Jeff Cunningham played the first half against them in 2002; and, in the same match, former TFCer Richard Mulrooney came on as a sub in the 36th minute. Additionally, ex-TFC Conor Casey was selected for a Gold Cup squad which played Canada but was injured and did not figure in the match.

It is doubtful that this moment from his past would make Guevara less attractive to Toronto FC, as Mo Johnston seems to pay little mind to matters-Canadian when choosing players. And its hard to imagine TFC fans – desperate to see some skilled players in red (or grey) – would balk at Guevara.

Martin Nash: Is he the most successful player in the recent history of CMNT?

2008-04-01T10:29:00.000-07:00

The short answer is yes.

That is to say, Canada has been most successful with him. Since his first call-up in 1997, the National Team has been at its best with Nash in the side.

With Nash on the pitch Canada has been 0.29 goals-per-90-minutes better than their opponents. Stated another way, when Nash has been playing, Canada outscores its opponents by 1 goal every 315 minutes.

This sounds like a modest accomplishment, but, since 1993 only two other players, with comparable minutes played, have a positive goal differential.* With Dwayne De Rosario on the field Canada is plus 0.11 goals-per-90-minutes, or 1 goal every 834 minutes. With Jim Brennan on the field Canada is plus 0.10 goals-per-90-minutes, or 1 goal every 906 minutes.

Moreover, since Nash’s first call-up, Canada has a massive deficit without him on the field. Overall, they are -29 goals without Nash over that period. This rates out to -0.41 goals-per-90-minutes, or a 1 goal deficit every 218 minutes.

0.29 goals to the good with Nash on the field, -0.41 goals without him; that’s a difference of 0.70 goals-per-90-minutes with Nash and without.

Most of this advantage came on the offensive end. With Nash, Canada scored 1.35 goals-for-per-90-minutes; without, they scored just 0.84. Surprising, Canada has also been better on the defensive end when Nash has played, they allow 1.06 goals-against-per-90-minutes with him, 1.25 against without.

There are obvious rebuttals to the argument for Nash. All of them are easily disproven.

Has Nash played against weaker Teams, and/or been left out against stronger teams?
No. The average FIFA rank of the opponent Canada has faced with Nash was 52.7; the average FIFA rank without Nash was 57.6.

Has Nash played in a disproportionate number of friendlies or non-competitive matches?
No. 62.5% of his minutes have come in competitive matches, like Qualifiers or the Gold Cup. Only 53.2% of the minutes Canada have played without him have been in competitive matches.

Are Nash’s numbers skewed by the recent Gold Cup?
No. In fact, Canada with Nash performed better in the period from 1998-2000 than from 2005 to the present.

Is Nash’s sample size too small, has he played too little to judge him accurately?
This is arguable. Overall, Nash has played only 25.9% of the minutes he might have since his first call-up. And from early 2004 through late 2006 he didn’t appear at all. However, since 1993, only 17 players have appeared in more matches than Nash, and only 26 have played more minutes.

* Minutes played statistics and proper substitution information is only available from mid-1993 on. Please feel free to help update my database with any game reports you may have.

Toronto FC 0 – 2 Columbus Crew

2008-03-31T10:00:00.000-07:00

Having watched the match a couple of times I had a couple of thoughts I wanted to post.

Obviously things could have turned out much better, as the 2-nil result wasn’t particularly indicative of the run of play - which was roughly even overall. With better luck on the line clearance by Rogers, or a better taken penalty, it could have been quite a different outcome.

TFC started both halves well, particularly the first 10 minutes of the second half; while Columbus had a slight edge during the middle on the first half, and had the run of play after the 75th minute. Overall, I had chances at TFC 10 - Columbus 8, though Columbus closed the gap in the final 20.

As it stands now, it is going to be a great challenge for TFC to overcome Columbus in the East. Not every MLS team can claim 5 decent offensive players (Moreno, Scheletto, Rogers, Gaven and Carroll), and in addition they have veterans Hejduk and O’Rourke on the backline, and a nice looking keeper in Hesmer. They will be a solid, if unspectacular squad.

Random Thoughts

- TFC set pieces were generally well taken, particularly corners - resulting in a solid first touch strike by Brennan in the first half, and forcing the Rogers clearance early in the second half. This seems to be the first positive impact of Carver on the club

- TFC completely lost their shape after the subs, and especially after the second goal, with, first Cunningham, then Samuel and finally Edu intermittently working the right flank. From his – admittedly few - touches on the flank it seemed clear that this is a not the place for Edu, he really needs to be that disrupter in the middle. Prior to that he had shown up well, particularly in the build up to his great ball to Dunivant (which unfortunately went to waste)

- Wynne was barely able to get forward at all while Hemming was on the pitch, I took note of just one time that he and Hemming attempted (awkwardly) to work the overlap. By contrast, Brennan and Dunivant showed their experience by working the overlap to good effect in the first half.

- Edwards didn’t distinguish himself, he made one good save on a Rogers shot, and another save on a chance taken poorly by Rogers. His distribution was indifferent. He certainly wasn’t at fault on either goal, in fact he was well positioned (in his dive) on the first, which took an inopportune short hop past him.

- On the second goal, Velez may have been able to work the offside trap, but its difficult to fault him, since it took a good ball through, great speed and a good finish for Moreno to tally

- Though he had some issues playing in a wide position, I like Tyler Hemming a lot. He is composed on the ball and off, and had his moments working the flank and attempting crosses. I could see him figuring in the Canadian WCQ set up in the not-to-distant future. Perhaps if they move through to the final round, he could be there in 2009.

- Finally, I thought the Columbus broadcasters, aired on MLSLIVE, were good. They spoke as kindly about TFC players as Crew, and repeatedly highlighted the crazy TFC fan presence. At one point they even put forward Jeff Cunningham for consideration in the USMNT. (!Yikes!)